Recently Shmuel Rosner has written an article to establish that the present war in Lebanon is localize and is not threatening to trigger off World War III. However, it is a bit difficult to digest, especially when the situation is so horrific.



Shmuel Rosner has said,



war is a terrible thing, but this one-contrary to the grandiose prognostications of Armageddon-obsessed pundits-will not bring about World War III or the end of the West or the defeat of extremist Islamism. It is now clear that the war in Lebanon is a limited, contained war, with modest goals and rational expectations.



There is an imperative need to evaluate this notion that present Middle East crisis will not trigger off World War III.



Firstly, Middle East region has become the battlefield of various vested interests. Seemingly, the present situation, if taken on prima facie, surely reflects that the on going conflict in Lebanon is limited and localized.



However, it would be a mistake to conclude the localized nature of the conflict as the parties locked in horns are being either directed or influenced and supported by external powers.



As per the reports, and to some extent apparently Hamas and Hezbollah are being directed by Tehran and by Syria as well. On the other hand, Israel is being influenced by the U.S. ever since its inception and of course some European countries too keep soft emotional corner for Israel.









As of now, for some shockingly and for some naturally U.S. has not taken any stance on the present situation. As the recent development suggests that U.S. would be more likely to pretend cautious and would love to prolong its reaction as its main target is Syria. However, if Beirut falls to Israel its half work is done, so there is no need to take any stance as its mission is being accomplished.



Most probably, U.S. and Israel might be thinking of making Lebanon their protectorate on the Jordanian model. Once Lebanon becomes their protectorate, it would be easy for U.S. to contain Syria and once Syria is tamed, mission Iran of U.S. would be making significant development. Therefore, Iran and Syria will not be sitting idle in the present situation.



Moreover, if Iran is threatened, Russia and now even China, which till very recently followed Sino-centric foreign policy, are most likely to react with their full strength. As for Russia, Iran is very important strategically; once U.S. contains Iran, Russia would loose its strategic grip over Caspian oil and gas reserve and of course transportation of fuel monopoly. Therefore, Russia is likely to react with its full potential otherwise, it could be politically and economically suicidal.



As so far, China is concerned, in recent times it has directed its foreign policy to secure its energy needs in accordance with its growing economy. China has made significant progress in outside investment for exploration and production of oil and gas and has been quite aggressive in nature to grab contracts outside China; sometimes it flexed its political muscles as well for the purpose.



Combining its energy needs and the shadow of Sino-centric policy, which advocated that if any power threatens, even remotely, frontiers of China it will not entertain such adventurism. Now the growing energy needs of China has made it imperative to check U.S. in the Middle East region. Therefore, even China could react to the development-taking place in the Middle-East region to protect its apparent stakes.



Over all, the situation of the Middle East region potentially possesses a devastating future if all the vested interests started asserting themselves at one point of time. If the present situation is not indicating towards the third world war, it has the potential to spark off another war, which could be global in nature.



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