The National Intelligence Estimate report paints a near nightmarish picture. It says the Iraqi security forces, despite improving slightly, are incapable of handling the situation in the country. If the prop of US military presence is withdrawn they will quickly fold up.
The political situation is worse. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki seems to be hopelessly lost in the maze of pulls and complexities of Iraqi politics. He neither has the personal stature and support nor the political shrewdness to sew together a government at Baghdad, representative of the main political players in the country.
Recently ministers of the Iraqi National List, an umbrella group of several political parties composed of secular Sunnis and Shiites resigned from the Iraqi cabinet. The Sunnis have already distanced itself from Maliki’s government. The Shias have boycotted the government. Charismatic Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr has political ambitions himself, and he will not do anything that would strengthen Maliki’s position.
The US policy of arming Sunni tribals against Al Qaeda is not yielding results that would gladden American hearts. In fact the Shias fear the armed Sunnis could turn against them in the future.
The Sunni-Shia divide continues to widen as ethnic cleansing goes on. As a result millions are becoming displaced.
Al Qaeda in Iraq remains a major security threat and a destabilizing force. It continues to strike at will.
Syria is cooking its own little plans to increase its influence in Iraq. It is extending support to Sunni groups not linked with Al Qaeda.
The only good news in this depressing saga is that Bush’s ’surge’ has resulted in a slight decrease in violence in the country.
