Amid the Iraqi chaos, surmounting violence and future predicament there is no respite for the people, because now the dark clouds of partition are hovering over the country with Kurds demanding a separate country. If such an option becomes viable for Kurds then, what is there to stop Sunnis and Shiites to pursue the same?
Is it fear of Turkish invasion, after US withdrawal, that’s making Kurds apprehensive of losing Kirkuk? Yes, Turkey opposes Kurdish takeover in the region, because it’ll inflame separatist sentiment among the sizeable Kurdish minority in Turkey, fearing which it has threatened to take military action against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), but subsided the idea after US warning and mainly due to political upheavals at home.
On the other hand, Kurdish leaders who supported US invasion on Iraq can strive to attain its support to supersede the objections of other ethnic groups and will press for a referendum. If this will happen, chaos will spill over to Northern Iraq, until now Iraq’s only tranquil area.
It’s tough situation for Iraq, because as of now, no agreement is reached on referendum and issues like who will be permitted to vote, who will oversee the polls, and which areas will be covered by the outcome - remains to be dealt with - which again are the points for confrontation. If the referendum takes place, other ethnic group will refute the elected party thus putting the political balance in limbo or if the poll doesn’t proceed, Kurdish leaders in Baghdad have threatened of political crisis by pulling out of the Iraqi government, while others in Kirkuk have hinted a unilateral takeover and the expulsion of their Arab and Turkoman opponents.
The demand is totally contrary, as far as the Iraqi future is concerned, and if this demand will be given heed, then the Shias and Sunnis will strive for the same and Iraq will be divided into three. Even thereafter, there are rare chances of rapprochement and rejuvenation. So, is it worth considering any such demand - of course not.
Referendum is not going to be an easy job and every move in it is a subject to confrontation between the Kurdish, Arab and ethnic Turkish populations, wherein Arab and Turkoman leaders have repeatedly blamed Kurds of settling non-Iraqi Kurds in Kirkuk to drive out Arabs and to boost the vote bank to possess the coveted Kirkuk in consensus.
US used Kurdish parties to form a puppet govt. and in return offered full support for an autonomous Kurdish region, but developments one after the other in Iraq show that control is slipping out US control and gradually the country is heading towards segregation. Kurds are becoming impatient for the possession of the region due to apprehensions of US withdrawal from Iraq and mainly due to US Presidential elections, because after elections new party can change its policies.
Finally, US is failing on every front in Iraq, so will this will be another one? Well, we hope not, and if consensus - which seems imminent - becomes a reality, it’ll lead to severe ethnic conflicts and total breakdown.
