It has been considered from time to time that any practical solution in Iraq would invariably have to include a huge Iranian role in it. Iran has for exerted power within Iraq for a long time now, emerging both from a sectarian and a strategic perspective. Not only did Iraq present the opportunity to be cultivated as a satellite Islamic state in the form of a strategic extension into the western front. It also possibly presented the idea of Tehran’s dominance in the region finally becoming a reality.
Iran’s calls of desperation
The dramatic fall of Arab nationalism in Iraq and the potential transformation of Iraq into a Shia theocratic ally would mean the fall of the last geographic wall between Iran and the allies in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territory. Iran was ready to take any action for this dream sequence to materialise. And this was clearly recognisable all throughout the Iraq war. Its calls for desperation came from constant calls for withdrawing coalition troops from Iraq by extremists in the parliament, and through the occasional use of armed forces. For Iran, the US had to be pushed out of Iraq for it go regain its supremacy and stronghold in Baghdad. The master plan, as it may be referred to, was to force the US to forsake her goals in Iraq mainly by impeding the democratic project that the US had set up.
Beginning of Iran’s failure
Despite all the efforts, certain developments in the past few weeks reflect a changing power status quo, and it is debated whether Iran’s stronghold is in serious danger. A feature article on the website ‘Pajamas Media’ titled ‘Is Iran’s honeymoon in Iraq over? There are increasing signs that it is’ listed these developments collected from both large and small stories in local Iraq newspapers. All of these must be looked at as pieces of one single jigsaw, as none would work to create the pressure alone. The developments have been billeted as found in article below:
1. At last Friday’s ceremony in a major Shia mosque by a senior Shia cleric - in Najaf no less - Tehran’s interference in Iraq was roundly criticized, calling it an interference that ‘is not in Iraq’s interest.’
2. The withdrawal of the Fadheela Party from the Shia bloc (the UIA). The Fadheela leaders said the reason for breaking away from the UIA was because the UIA didn’t act as a patriotic movement. This step stands as a challenge by the Arabic hierarchy of Yaqoubi (the Ayatollah behind Fadheela) to the Iranian-born Sistani and his hierarchy, combined with a call for nonsectarian political process.
3. The Baghdad security operation, and the apparent determination of PM Maliki to confront and disarm all outlaws - especially those with connections with neighboring countries.
4. The flight of Sadr and many others from Iraq has also dealt a blow to Iran’s influence in Iraq.
5. The Kurds of Iraq are distancing themselves from Iran and flirting with their Saudi opponents. The visit Masoud Barzani (the president of Kurdistan in Iraq) made to the Saudi capital has more or less marked a significant change in Iran’s relationships with Iraq’s Kurds.
All of the above developments, set over a period of time, and looked at in totality, present a dismal state of affairs for Iran. Iran’s plans which seemed to be clearly materialising a few months ago, have now clearly been disillusioned. While no one expects Iran to sit back and accept this situation, it is hard to predict its actions in the coming months. Whether it tries to more directly influence Iraqi politics, take a more vigilant sectarian path in order to appeal to the Iraqi Shias, or increase military attacks in Iraq to deepen the conflict that already exists we do not know. These are just some of the possibilities.
Via: source
