The Iran nuclear issue is growing graver. Israel believes that Iran will have a nuclear bomb within a year and fears that it will be its target. The fears are not unfounded. Iranian president Ahmadinejad has openly said that he intends to destroy Israel. But the real worry is that events are fast precipitating to a war, even earlier than that, between the US and Iran.
The catalyst might come from recent internal developments in Iran itself. There are indications of an internal power struggle in the country between its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and president Ahmadinejad.
A few days ago, Khamenei’s protege Larijani resigned as negotiator with the west over the nuclear issue, citing interference from the Iranian president as the reason. Larijani was in favour of talking with the west to defuse the confrontation. Whereas, hardliner Ahmadinejad feels there is no need for negotiations. He wants to go ahead with the nuclear programme disregarding the US and co.’s objections.
Initially, it seemed Larijani’s resignation and Jalili’s appointment in his place had Khamenei’s blessings. Saeed Jalili is close to Ahmadinejad. But the protest by 200 odd Majlis members against Larijani’s departure has added a new twist to the plot. They were joined by Akbar Ali Vilayati, who is foreign policy adviser to Khamenei. This faction in the country believes it should unobtrusively go on with its peaceful nuclear programme like Japan has done. If need arises in the future this peaceful programme can be quickly transformed to make a bomb.
Larijani meanwhile had talks with Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, in Rome on Tuesday. He was acting as Khamenei’s personal representative on Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
This clearly reflects two minds and the background politics brewing up in Iran.
Another problem is that the west will be talking with Jalili, who is from the hardline (Ahmadinejad) faction of Iran. The confused signals emanating from Iran bodes ill. There is little prospect of any peaceful outcome from talks between the west and Iran. The hawks in the US establishment will seize the opportunity for attacking Iran militarily.
